I was in Paris yesterday. The plan was to go see a
movie, perhaps, then join friends at home. The movie schedules meant that had
we stayed, we would have returned home after dark, so, we left town early. For
once, transport ran smoothly. A peaceful dinner with friends visiting from
Montreal and Geneva. Then, the news broke and everyone drifted to the TV room
to watch news of the carnage unfold in the 10th and 11th and the Stade de
France.
This is France's 9/11.
What happened in Paris last night is exactly what
Europe's security services have long feared, and tried to second guess.
Determined, well-organized simultaneously rolling attacks, with automatic
weapons and suicide bombers in the heart of a major European city, targeting
multiple, crowded public locations. These tactics have been used before in
Mumbai and elsewhere. Once shock and outrage have abated, there are many
questions which will have to be answered, and the answers had better be right.
How has such a well-organized sleeper group found its way undetected into the
heart of Europe? Were the attackers French citizens, if so, how they were
radicalised, armed and organised? In France, perhaps, or the Schengen zone, or
further afield, perhaps in Syria, and by whom? Why weren't they detected by the
intelligence services? Is France, after two major attacks this year, uniquely
vulnerable? Or does the carnage in Paris mean all of Europe faces new threats
to our public places and events? And if a Syrian link is proven, will France's
instinct be to back off or will it redouble its commitment to the fight
against radical groups there? Today, François Hollande used the words 'act of
war'. It might be good to remember that wars brew slowly - the First World War
was a tragedy of incompetent leadership, pride and brinkmanship for the
preceding twenty years and the relatively unimportant assassination of Archduke
Ferdinand was the spark that lit the powder keg that set Europe ablaze.
I have written before about the
idolatry of ISIL, making mention of the fact that the severest punishments in
the Old Testament are reserved for those who sacrifice their children to
Moloch. The perpetrators and the ideology that drives them are transparently
guilty of this very act and, this time, it's personal. It can no longer be
denied that radical Islam is a dark, malevolent and powerful force with a
thirst for conquest and an appetite for retribution on a scale not seen for
centuries. As I write, an audio communiqué from ISIL has just been released
online, in fluent, Arab-accented French, claiming responsibility, indicating
the targets were meticulously chosen for maximum impact. If this is, as
Jeb Bush put it last night, 'the war of our time', then we had better get
ready.
The downing of a Russian airliner, the Beirut bombings and now events in Paris. Why is ISIL going global?
ReplyDeleteI think that they are attempting to exploit the same tactical advantage as Al-Qaeda did, to reduce the thickness of what one commentator calls the ‘grey zone’. In the absence of a grey zone, things look starkly black or white and, to the extremists, this is good news because it pushes most people’s comfort zones either one way or the other. It seemed that there was no call to arms amongst local French activists, no calls for lone wolf attacks, instead a tactic was adopted which they believed to be more effective, a well-organised blitzkrieg with three main objectives.
First, terror, which directly affects relatively few but its ripples cause irrational distrust and fear among many. They are hoping, perhaps, that such fear will cause leaders, in response to a clamour of angry, frightened voices, to respond with a knee-jerk, ill-conceived response, such as halting the bombings on ISIL targets in Syria. The initial French response was to close borders and declare a state of emergency – perhaps disproportionate - but it illustrates the point that something had to be done and more importantly, be seen to be being done.
Secondly, inspiration. The false flag of jihad is a call to arms from Allah himself and will inspire existing supporters to more direct action and attract more to the cause.
The third aim is to polarise, and is the most important. In Iraq and Syria, ISIL has ruthlessly levered any internal tension within a community, whether sectarian, tribal, ethnic, or economic – to open up a space which it can exploit. It knows that a community divided, where mutual distrust nourishes hatred, is a fertile recruiting ground.
ISIL’s attacks are not random, purposeless or indiscriminate and neither must our response be. I hoped never to have to write this but it would seem that the success or failure of this new global campaign will decide for how long the world allows it to continue. Its aims are despicably repugnant, morally and judicially and its methods are such that we are left with little choice but to exterminate the verminous plague that has come among us, once and for all by any and all possible means.